Members Only: The Next 24 Months

Looking back at the last two years feels like watching someone play geopolitical Jenga while juggling flaming chainsaws. We've seen Trump's comeback, European coalition collapses, AI breakthroughs, and climate disasters that would make Roland Emmerich say "maybe tone it down a bit." But prediction is hard, especially about the future. Let's try anyway.

First, some methodology. When extrapolating from current events, we should be wary of both linear and cyclic thinking. Linear thinking says "if X increased by Y% in the past two years, it will increase by Y% in the next two." Cyclic thinking says "what goes up must come down." Both are sometimes true, neither is reliable.

Instead, I'll focus on underlying mechanisms. If A caused B, and A is still present (or strengthening), we can expect more B. If C prevented D, and C is weakening, we might see D emerge. This won't make our predictions perfect, but it might make them less wrong.

These are my rough notes as they currently sit. Any prediction exercise is inherently uncertain, but looking at underlying mechanisms and systemic interactions can at least offer a framework for thinking about potential futures. The world appears to be entering a period of accelerating change across multiple domains simultaneously, with various crises and developments amplifying each other in complex ways. TL:DR - things are weird and about to get weirder.

The Big Five

1. The Multipolar Trap

The trend toward multipolarity is accelerating. The BRICS expansion, North Korea-Russia military cooperation, and the Saudi-Iran rapprochement all point to an emerging pattern: middle powers are increasingly willing to form alliances independent of (or hostile to) Western interests.

Prediction: By 2026, we'll see at least three more significant non-Western security arrangements. The most likely candidates are:

1. An Iran-Russia-China naval cooperation agreement
2. A formal BRICS military coordination mechanism
3. A Middle Eastern mutual defense pact excluding Western powers

2. AI: The Great Accelerant

2023's AI breakthroughs were the barest scrapings of the beginning. GPT-4 and its competitors have already transformed how businesses operate. But the real changes will come from second-order effects.

Prediction: By 2026:

1. At least one major nation will deploy AI systems for high-level policy analysis
2. We'll see the first "AI-assisted" trade agreements, optimized by language models
3. A significant military conflict will involve AI-driven tactical decision-making
4. At least three G20 nations will implement strict AI content labeling laws

3. Climate Change: From Crisis to Chaos

The pattern of the last two years shows increasing disaster frequency and severity. But more importantly, it shows cascading effects: disasters triggering political crises triggering economic disruptions triggering more disasters.

Prediction: 2025-2026 will see:

1. Three or more simultaneous "once in 500 years" weather events
2. The first climate refugee crisis in a developed nation
3. A major shift in global agriculture patterns, with at least one staple crop region becoming non-viable

4. The Great Power Reshuffle

Trump's return and European instability aren't isolated events, they're symptoms of a broader realignment. The post-Cold War order is shattering.

Prediction:

1. Germany will shift right dramatically after coalition instability
2. At least two more European nations will elect populist governments
3. China will face a significant internal crisis (economic or political)
4. Japan will announce major military expansion
5. India will emerge as a decisive swing power between East and West

5. Economic Fuckery

The combination of technological disruption, geopolitical tension, and climate pressure is transforming the fundamental structure of global economies. A US-led shift in policy re: crypto will play a huge role in this; but so will aggressive Trumpian trade wars (if they eventuate.)

Prediction:

1. At least three major currencies will launch CBDC systems
2. A non-Western trade settlement system will handle >20% of global trade
3. We won’t see the first "climate bankruptcy" of a major corporation, but we’ll see some shakes
4. A significant commodity will be traded primarily in non-dollar currencies

Black Swans Worth Watching

Some low-probability, high-impact events that could reshape everything:

• A breakthrough in fusion power or grid-scale energy storage
• A major cyber attack taking down critical infrastructure for >1 month
• A new pandemic (more likely than we'd like to admit)
• Quantum computing breakthrough destabilizing current encryption

Meta-Prediction

The most important prediction might be this: the rate of change itself is increasing. The world of 2026 will be more different from 2024 than 2024 was from 2022. This acceleration creates positive feedback loops in almost every domain - technological, political, environmental, and social.

We're entering what might be called the "Everything Everywhere All at Once" era of history. The boundaries between different types of crises - technological, environmental, political, economic - are dissolving. Each crisis amplifies the others, creating feedback loops that make traditional prediction models increasingly unreliable.

The next two years won't be more extreme versions of the last two; they'll rhyme, they'll expand, but they'll be qualitatively different. The challenge isn't predicting individual events, but understanding how they'll interact and cascade.

If any of these predictions come true, I'll claim prescience. If they don't, I'll write a long post about how prediction is hard and we should be humble about our capabilities. This is the way.